For Your Consideration: Vladimir Guerrero

The Baseball Writers’ Association of America is casting its ballots in the next month for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum’s Class of 2018.

La Vida Baseball will weigh in with the pros, the cons and the betcha-didn’t-knows of the Latino candidates. There are 33 players eligible, including Omar Vizquel, Édgar Martínez, Vladimir Guerrero, Sammy Sosa, Johan Santana, Manny Ramírez, Liván Hernández, Carlos Lee, Carlos Zambrano and Andruw Jones, who we include because he hails from Curacao.

Previously, we looked at Vizquel and Martínez. In this edition, Guerrero.

.318/.379/.553 — 59.3 WAR — 50.2 JAWS

By Efraín Ruiz Pantin

Bad-ball hitter extraordinaire, Vladimir Guerrero just missed induction into Cooperstown by 15 votes in his first appearance on the ballot last year. The metrics don’t quite do him justice — how do you measure the ability to hit a curveball after it has bounced two feet in front of the plate? Can you measure the level of fear he induced in major league pitchers beyond the 250 intentional walks he drew?

Watching Vlad, with his powerful body and explosive moves, was like watching a modern dancer. His smile radiated joy and passion, he took mighty hacks, he ran with abandon (too much abandon, at times) and his throws from right field put one in mind of Roberto Clemente.

Born in Nizao, a small city on the southern coast of the Dominican Republic, and raised in the neighboring community of Don Gregorio, Guerrero was a shy boy who overcame extreme poverty to excel on the big stage with the Expos, Angels, Rangers and Orioles. In 16 seasons, he earned nine All-Star selections, eight Silver Slugger Awards and the 2004 AL MVP. His journey alone is Hall of Fame worthy.

The case for Guerrero

He hit for average and power. Not only did Guerrero slug .553 — 25th all-time — he’s one of six players in history to hit .318 or better and connect on at least 449 home runs. The other five? Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Ted Williams and Stan Musial.

Based on traditional criteria, Guerrero fulfills many HOF requirements. He hit .300 in 13 of his 15 full seasons. Totaled 100 RBIs 10 times. Hit 30 home runs eight times, and 40 twice. Four 200-hit seasons. And before his knees betrayed him, two 30-30 seasons.

The case against Guerrero

If you acknowledge that right field is among the most loaded positions in the Hall of Fame, starting with Ruth, Clemente, Hank Aaron, Frank Robinson and Reggie Jackson, then you may nitpick while reviewing Guerrero’s legacy, whether it’s his defense or base-running.

He was a wildly entertaining outfielder, leading right fielders three times in assists — and also leading all outfielders in errors eight times and right fielders in one other season. He was caught stealing 20 times in one season. In 60 attempts.

His career includes 508 games at DH, further diluting his WAR. And his postseason performances were subpar, with a line of .263/.324/.339 and two home runs in 188 plate appearances.

What the metrics say

Which metrics to believe? His 59.3 WAR, 140 OPS+ and reckless base-running place him on the lower end of greatness. His 50.2 JAWS — a metric that averages career WAR with the player’s 7-year peak WAR and was created to compare players to those enshrined in Cooperstown — is well below the 58.1 average for right fielders enshrined in Cooperstown.

On the other hand, Bill James, the grandfather of sabermetrics, created the HOF Monitor, which gives players points for different milestones and attempts to assess how likely a player is to enter Cooperstown. Using its rough scale, 100 means “good possibility” and 130 is a “virtual cinch.” Vlad busts the scale at 209.

And how to account for his 250 intentional walks, fifth-most in history? Many metrics don’t calculate them or give them only partial credit. For what it’s worth, FanGraphs’ Craig Edwards attempted to quantify what he called “pitcher fear” and figured out that all those intentional walks added roughly six wins to Guerrero’s WAR.

Greatest moment

Without a doubt, his 2004 MVP season, when he hit .337/.391/.598 with 39 home runs, 126 RBI and a league-leading 124 runs. He placed the Angels on his shoulder during the second half and went on a torrid streak in the last seven games, batting 15-for-28 with three doubles, six home runs, 10 runs, 11 RBI and no strikeouts. The Angels went 6-1, making up three games on the Athletics and winning the AL West by one game.

You can encapsulate his season — and career — with one game that summer, against the Red Sox at Angel Stadium on June 2. In five plate appearances, he banged out a single, a double, two home runs, a sacrifice fly and nine RBI, tying a single-game record for Dominicans shared by Sammy Sosa and Edwin Encarnación. In a country that offered so many legendary sluggers — A-Rod, Albert Pujols, Manny Ramírez, Rico Carty and so on — none hit for a higher average than Vlad.

Fact you probably don’t know

There’s video of Guerrero knocking a curveball that bounced in front of him for a hit. But in Jonah Keri’s book Up, Up & Away, a history of the Montreal Expos, sportswriter Jeff Blair recounts a tale that in rookie league play, Guerrero once hit a bouncing pitch for a home run.

“The ball bounced in front of home plate … and Vlad knocked it over the centerfield fence. Over the wall, at least 400 feet,” Blair said.

The best way to sum up Guerrero’s career? He was always worth the price of admission.

Featured Image: Jed Jacobsohn / Getty Images Sport

Inset Image: Harry How / Getty Images Sport